In the bulk carrier freight markets, the ugly situation in the Red Sea turned out to be good for capesize tonne-miles and earnings in the early part of the year as brokers reported more than 60 capesizes diverting from the Suez route via the Cape of Good Hope in January alone. This had the lucky effect of offsetting the usual seasonal downhill slalom in the freight market as Chinese charterers retreated for two weeks during the Lunar New Year. With hindsight, there were already indications of China’s weak economic recovery from the pandemic, in particular in thermal coal demand and electricity generation data. In January we wrote that “the naughty step remains inhabited by the Soth China to Indonesia round voyage which lost another 29% in January for kamsarmaxes, rates starting the year at a respectable $13,500 a day but skidding to a recidivist $9,600 by January 25.” Freight markets recovered in February led by the capesize segment, particularly the higher volume Australia to China route, even as iron ore prices were falling, as they did for much of the year, beginning at around $130 per tonne FOB in January, and bottoming out at $92 a tonne in late September before staging a rally to $101 per tonne in early December. This was the least volatile year since 1999 As things turned out, the green shoots of spring that became visible in March lasted only until April before the Chinese frost stunted their growth and at no point in 2024 have bulk carrier freight rates exceeded those available in December 2023. China’s collapsing real estate market plagued its economy and its suppliers of raw materials in 2024. As domestic demand growth fell, with deflation stalking the land like a pale horse, the Middle Kingdom relied on export demand to keep its factory output going, even as the advent of a second Trump presidency in the US threatens (if not actually promises, yet) to cap exports with swingeing tariffs. In April, Beijing announced RMB300bn ($42bn) of central bank funding (and potentially RMB500bn) to buy up unfinished and unsold properties from developers. The central bank also cut the minimum deposit for first time buyers by 5% to 15% and for second home buyers from 25% to 20%. The announcements amounted to the biggest single stimulus package since the global financial crisis. Chinese steel production rose 8.1% in May over April to reach 92.86m tonnes, its highest since March 2023 and up 2.7% year-on-year. Steel exports also rose 4.4% to 9.63m tonnes. Capesize rates, on a monthly average basis, peaked in March at $31,245, then dwindled until June before staging a rally between July and September, peaking at $27,410 in the ninth month. In October and November they were caught in the doldrums, averaging a directionless $20,903 and $20,899. In October, our bulk carrier commentary headline was ‘Fragility trumps confidence’ as iron ore freight rates fell 25% and, with higher fuel costs, time charter equivalent earnings fell by over 40%. By that stage of the year it was clear that weak Chinese demand had infected coal markets with kamsarmax earnings on China to Indonesia round voyages returning $17,075 per day in May, $13,054 in July, $12,683 in September and $11,228 in November. In the first week of December the rate fell below $9,000 per day, its first dip to four figures since July 2023. Both the spring and autumn grain seasons proved to be damp squibs, doing little to drive freight rates up except for the Baltic Exchange route P2A, a kamsarma