Hormuz energy shock threatens food security, affordability gap for import-dependent countries in International Shipping News 08/04/2026 Rising energy and fertilizer costs linked to shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are amplifying risks to global food systems, with low-income, import-dependent countries facing the brunt, according to recent analyses by the UN and Purdue University. Shipping through the critical trade corridor has effectively stalled, with transits down by more than 95% since late February. The resulting disruption to oil, gas and fertilizer flows has triggered a cascade of cost pressures across agricultural supply chains, the UN Trade and Development said in a March 30 study. The impact is increasingly feeding into food systems through higher input, transportation and trade costs, while a separate March 31 analysis by Purdue University highlighted how the same disruption is structurally widening the gap between food-secure and food-insecure economies, said Ken Foster, professor of Agricultural Economics and director, Purdue Farm Policy Study Group, and Bernhard Dalheimer, assistant professor of Macroeconomics and Trade. Energy-fertilizer-food link Unlike demand-driven commodity cycles, the current shock is rooted in supply disruptions to oil markets, with direct implications for food systems. In low- and middle-income countries, where transport costs account for a larger share of final food prices, higher fuel prices translate more sharply into retail inflation. Weak infrastructure, longer supply chains and limited cold storage further amplify these effects. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows and a significant share of fertilizer trade, making it a key chokepoint for agricultural inputs. As natural gas prices double in parts of Asia and rise sharply in Europe, fertilizer production costs have followed. Shipping through Hormuz has collapsed, with transits down by over 95%, disrupting energy and fertilizer flows as daily transits dropped from an average of 103 ships in the last week of February to single digits within weeks, effectively bringing flows close to a standstill, the UNCTAD report said Nitrogen-based fertilizers, such as urea and ammonia, are particularly exposed, given their reliance on gas feedstocks. Prices for these products have already risen markedly, with further increases expected if disruptions persist. Tanker rates are also up more than 90% since late February, bunker fuel prices have nearly doubled, and war-risk insurance premiums have spiked, in some cases leading insurers to withdraw coverage for Persian Gulf routes, according to the UNCTAD. These pressures are feeding directly into farm-level economics, influencing planting decisions, input use and ultimately crop yields. Food affordability gap widens The disparity is most visible at the household level. Low-income country households spend roughly half of their income on food, compared with about 10% in high-income economies. This means a 10% rise in food prices effectively translates into a 5% income shock for poorer consumers — five times the relative impact seen in wealthier countries, said the Purdue analysis. The UNCTAD estimates that about one-third of global seaborne fertilizer volumes transit through the Persian Gulf, with countries like Sudan, Tanzania and Somalia sourcing up to 30%-50% of their imports from the region. Thin global markets amplify volatility The structure of global a