Seaborne iron ore could see medium-grade prices diverge into Q1 on buying curbs in Commodity News 06/02/2026 This report is part of the S&P Global Energy Metals Trade Review series, where we dig through datasets and digest some of the key trends in iron ore, metallurgical coal, copper, alumina, cobalt, lithium, nickel and steel and scrap. We also explore what the next few months could bring, from supply and demand shifts to new arbitrages and quality spread fluctuations. The Asian iron ore market has seen prices of medium-grade fines diverge well into the first month of 2026, and could see that persist amid unofficial curbs on Chinese steelmakers’ buying of certain brands, trade sources and other market participants told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy. The price relationships between the medium-grade brands had started to stabilize in their new positions against each other and the IODEX in Q3 2025, when Chinese steelmakers received their first deliveries of Pilbara region material of revised, lowered specifications. Brands like Pilbara Blend Fines and Mining Area C Fines had traded near parity between July and September, but have now taken different paths, with the latter trading at increasingly large discounts on a floating price basis. This followed decisions for Chinese mills to stop buying BHP’s Jimblebar Fines on Sept. 18, 2025, and then Jinbao Fines on Nov. 21. There was initial buyer uncertainty around whether imports of MACF and Newman High Grade Fines, BHP’s other brands, would also face barriers, as no formal announcement of the ban has been made. While it has become clearer that MACF and NHGF don’t face hurdles, Chinese steelmakers have avoided buying them in the seaborne spot market directly from the miner, leaving traders as their main counterparties. As a result, MACF traded at discounts of as much as $4.30/dmt to 61% Fe indices on Jan. 20, compared with a $1.35/dmt discount Nov. 24, 2025, when BHP first started offering spot cargoes on a 61% Fe basis, data compiled by Platts showed. Similarly, NHGF traded at the widest discount of $5.30/dmt to 61% Fe indices on Jan. 20, compared with a discount of $1.05/dmt Nov. 24. As term contractual negotiations with China Mineral Resources Group, the nation’s central buyer, became drawn out, the number of spot, seaborne transactions of MACF and NHGF rose 133% quarter over quarter in Q4 2025, exceeding that of Rio Tinto’s PBF, traditionally the brand that sees the highest seaborne liquidity. However, with Chinese mills reliant on MACF and NHGF in their blast furnaces, they have continued buying both brands from third parties in the secondary market and at port stocks, market participants said. The secondary seaborne trades have taken place more discreetly, and at smaller discounts — or higher prices — than the levels at which primary trades were done, market participants said. Further, port stocks of MACF and NHGF have traded at parity with and higher than PBF since Jan. 5, according to Platts data, indicating that the two brands maintained their intrinsic values, and that the larger discounts seen in primary seaborne trades were in large part an artifact of outstanding negotiations and the import barriers. Steelmakers turning toward securing iron ore from port stocks amid uncertainty over import curbs has led to the Platts IOPEX — a measure of port stock iron ore prices — to exceed the IODEX at a spread of $3.90/dmt on Jan. 16, the largest since June 2024. Pilbara Blend Fines as sa