Shrinking lifeline for steam LNGCs — Are TFDE/DFDE carriers next? in International Shipping News 16/03/2026 Drewry expects about 25% of the total vessel demand to be for replacement tonnage by 2035. While over 550 LNGCs will be required by 2035, 140 LNGCs will be needed to offset the tonnage lost from accelerated demolitions. We expect 100 steam turbine carriers to be scrapped by 2030. In the wake of increasingly stringent regulations, TFDE/DFDE carriers could be the next to feel the heat, especially if there are no technological advancements to address their existing issues. Steam carriers are bearing the brunt of increasing scrutiny and rising market uncertainty Several steam turbine carriers are coming off charter and have limited employment opportunities. Moreover, the continued rate crash for steam vessels coincides with growing economic and environmental infeasibility, leaving many of these open carriers idled or laid up as re-employment opportunities remain challenging, while deliveries of modern carriers are at record highs, keeping supply ample. As of February 2026, over 60 LNGCs are idled/laid-up, of which steam carriers account for 70% of the total. Some owners are placing their ships in lay-up, hoping that the vast liquefaction capacity expected towards 2028-29 will generate demand, whereas charters will likely become more reluctant to deploy steam carriers, as this will incur substantial costs. Meanwhile, an influx of modern carriers is underway. Figure 1: No. of idled/laid-up vessels inched in 2025 Source: Drewry Maritime Research Figure 2: Idled/laid-up vessels by technology type Source: Drewry Maritime Research Although we expect the market to rebalance in 2026 as supply-demand fundamentals improve, demand for steam carriers will remain low, leading to another year of record-breaking demolitions. Meanwhile, even after laying up the ships for three to four years (with laid-up costs depending on their condition), vessels might only get a short burst of employment, leaving vessel owners to bear the cost. As charter rates are falling and operating costs are rising (though steadily), the ratio between the two has been widening since 2025; we expect the same trend to continue in the coming year, challenging the economic viability of these carriers. No savings appear plausible for these carriers under normal market conditions, leaving several steam carriers stranded as a result of a dismal demand outlook. Figure 3: Steam carrier: Charter rates at record low, with rising cost burden * 2026 is an estimation based on our forecast for steam carriers. Note: Ship operating cost is considered from Drewry’s Ship Operating Costs 2025 Annual report. Source: Drewry Maritime ResearchHigher demolitions to create demand for over 80 new LNGCs by 2030 We anticipate an average 18-20 carriers to be demolished each year through 2030 (with scrapping peaking in 2028-29), which will necessitate demand for new LNGCs. According to our estimates, about 80 LNGCs will be required to balance replacement tonnage through 2026-30. Figure 4: Demolished vessels v/s replaced demand for LNGCs Note: Estimation for vessel demand only considers expected demolitions per year (though some could end up for conversions). Source: Drewry Maritime Research LNG fleet at risk Figure 5: Share of LNG fleet based on engine-technology type Note: Risk category as per market conditions, charter rates, OPEX cost, charter duration, and environmental and economic feasibility, and re