Tensions remain high in the Middle East, with President Trump stating the US has held off an attack on Iran planned for this week to allow for continued negotiations, and the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed. For container freight, as peak season approaches, the continued closure means we’ll start to see seasonal demand-driven movements in freight rates from a fuel cost-elevated baseline – with some capacity management of the growing fleet playing a role as well. Asia – Europe container rates for the most stayed level since the start of the war, though additional fuel costs likely prevented prices from easing during the low demand months of March and April. Peak season demand on Asia – Europe lanes under “normal” circumstances can start as late as July and run through mid-October. But since carriers started diverting away from the Red Sea, importers in Europe have started peak season ordering earlier in order to finish moving goods before Golden Week at the start of October – since the longer transit time means containers moved after mid-October may not arrive in time for the holiday season. In 2024, Asia – Europe rates had already started climbing in early May and peaked by mid-July. In 2025, possibly after observing the May 2024 start was earlier than necessary, Asia – Europe prices picked up in early June and again peaked in mid-July, with a $1,200/FEU increase in that span to N. Europe and a short-lived $2,000/FEU peak for rates on the Asia – Mediterranean lanes. Some carriers are reporting an early uptick in demand on these routes again this year, and though prices were about level last week at $2,800/FEU to N. Europe and $3,600/FEU to the Mediterranean, daily prices have started to pick up so far this week, possibly reflecting mid-May GRI attempts. Rates could start climbing on those increased volumes, though they would also be helped by current blanked sailings on these lanes. Additional rate increases announced by some carriers