As Venezuela faces a regime change, the country’s production recovery is staring at a decade-long timeline despite near-term supply gains, according to Wood Mackenzie, an energy intelligence group, which believes that additional Venezuelan barrels could pressure Brent prices below mid-to high $50 per barrel (bbl) of oil in the first quarter of 2026 amid oversupply and also realign flows, diverting Middle East heavy barrels to Asia and intensifying competition for Canadian crude in the U.S. Gulf

Wood Mackenzie Gulf Coast Venezuelan Brent View Chevron PDVSA Middle East Alan Gelder Oil Markets Asia Canadian Illustration Nicol Maduro