How long will Gulf disruptions support aluminum prices? in Commodity News 05/03/2026 Aluminium prices surged 3.8% to $3,315 per tonne after QatarEnergy halted production following Iranian retaliatory strikes that shuttered its major LNG plant, raising urgent questions about how long the region’s supply disruptions will last. The attacks came after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering strikes across a region that produces around 8% of global aluminium output, according to ING Research. The attacks came after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering strikes across a region that produces around 8% of global aluminium output, according to ING Research. The most immediate casualty is Qatalum, a joint venture between Qatar’s state aluminium producer and , which began a controlled shutdown and said a full restart could take six to twelve months. Norsk Hydro issued force majeure notices to customers. Qatalum has a nameplate capacity of 636,000 tonnes. Emirates Global Aluminium said it was drawing on offshore inventories to manage loading delays. The Gulf’s vulnerability runs deeper than the conflict itself. Smelters in the region hold only around three to four weeks of alumina inventories, and the Gulf produces just 3% of global alumina and 1% of global bauxite, leaving producers heavily exposed if Strait of Hormuz shipping remains constrained, ING Research said. Europe faces the sharpest downstream risk. The Gulf accounts for roughly 30% of European aluminium imports, dominated by UAE material, and primary availability was already tight before the conflict escalated. The U.S., where the Gulf supplies over 20% of aluminium imports, faces exposure too, though tariff-inflated Midwest premiums cap near-term upside. The disruption is hitting a market already in deficit. ING Research had flagged a supply shortfall of around 600,000 tonnes for 2026 before factoring in any Middle East risk, with China’s capacity cap, trade dislocations and the imminent Mozal smelter closure all weighing on supply. On Tuesday, orders for LME warehouse metal jumped to their highest since September, centred on Malaysian material. The principal downside risk is demand. A prolonged conflict could weigh on industrial activity and trigger demand destruction, though ING Research assessed the balance of risks as skewed to the upside if Hormuz disruptions persist. How long the strait stays impaired will determine whether the current price move proves a spike or a structural shift. Source: Investing.com 2026-03-05 hellenicshippingnews... window.___gcfg = {lang: 'en-US'}; (function(w, d, s) { function go(){ var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], load = function(url, id) { if (d.getElementById(id)) {return;} js = d.createElement(s); js.src = url; js.id = id; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }; load('//connect.facebook.net/en/all.js#xfbml=1', 'fbjssdk'); load('https://apis.google.com/js/plusone.js', 'gplus1js'); load('//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js', 'tweetjs'); } if (w.addEventListener) { w.addEventListener("load", go, false); } else if (w.attachEvent) { w.attachEvent("onload",go); } }(window, document, 'script')); tweet Share