Fitch Ratings Lays Out Approach to Ratings Potentially Affected by Iran Crisis in World Economy News 31/03/2026 Fitch Ratings published heatmaps on 20 March illustrating potential exposures by sector of rated issuers to an adverse macroeconomic case featuring average 2026 Brent crude oil prices of USD100/bbl, lower global growth, increased inflation, tighter financial conditions and lower equity markets compared to our USD70/bbl base case. Even with the prospect of US-Iran negotiations, the adverse scenario is sufficiently material and the risk of it occurring is now sufficiently high for us to signal, via rating Outlook revisions or Rating Watches, credits that would be downgraded under this scenario. We have begun working through Fitch-rated credits in the sectors and geographies where our heatmap exercise indicated that issuer credit profiles face a material threat under the adverse scenario, to identify those that require review. Any actions we take will include detailed analysis at the issuer level and take into account any issuer-specific mitigants, including liquidity, the likelihood of parent or government support, and potential recovery paths. We believe that the USD70/bbl Brent base case set out in the March 2026 Global Economic Outlook remains realistic and consistent with a further month of effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to the end of April, followed by gradual normalisation of oil flows in May and June. A reasonably well supplied physical market, including the IEA member states’ release of oil from their reserves, could keep oil at around USD100/bbl for several more weeks even if the Strait remains closed. The current conflict began at a time when the oil market was oversupplied and inventories were exceptionally high. A reopening of the Strait early in 2Q26 could lead to a faster drop in the oil price to pre-conflict levels than many predict, leading to a full-year average price of around USD70/bbl. We continue to believe there are strong incentives for both the US and Iran to cease hostilities, despite aggressive rhetoric on both sides. Nevertheless, we recognise that the risks to this base case are substantial and biased towards higher oil prices and more disruption. This is reflected in our assumption that oil prices spike to USD130/bbl in 2Q26 in our adverse scenario, resulting in an average price of USD100/bbl for the year as a whole. In particular, Iran’s ability to restrict shipping through the Strait, which could continue after the most intense phase of the war is over, raises the prospect of longer-term supply curtailment and/or a higher oil price risk premium. Eventualities such as a land invasion of Iran, further significant damage to critical infrastructure including oil and gas facilities, disruption to shipping in the Red Sea, or the launch of offensive operations against Iran by Gulf Cooperation Council member states could indicate a lengthier war and slower return to normality. We do not consider the adverse case published on 20 March as likely, but its materiality and the probability of it occurring has reached a level where for some issuers the likelihood of a rating downgrade is materially higher than the historical average; consistent with a Negative Outlook under our Rating Definitions. Rating Watches are assigned when a defined set of developments may lead to rating action in the short term, including in situations where it is uncertain whether the developments will take place, but the rati