Complexity of Hormuz constriction in International Shipping News 20/03/2026 Describing the situation in the Strait of Hormuz as an “incredibly dynamic environment”, Jos Standerwick, head of membership at the Baltic Exchange, yesterday sought to clarify a landscape that has “trapped 1,000+ vessels” and threatens the safety of thousands of seafarers. Moderating a webinar co-hosted with Maritime London, Standerwick first introduced Saleem Khan, chief data and analytics officer at Pole Star Global, who outlined the stark operational reality on the water. Khan reported a near-total cessation of legitimate trade. Before the conflict, nearly $1.5 billion worth of oil moved through the region daily; that figure has effectively dropped to zero. While seven or eight vessels recently traversed the Strait bound for India and China, Khan noted that most legitimate activity has halted. The disruption has left approximately 540 oil tankers carrying 314 million barrels of oil—valued at roughly $32 billion—languishing at sea with destinations listed as “awaiting orders”. Adding to the chaos is a surge in digital deception and technical interference. Khan reported that approximately 10% of the 2,500 vessels in the Gulf are exhibiting “AIS anomalies”, including spoofing, jamming, and the disabling of transponders. He estimated that 75 to 100 vessels are actively spoofing their locations, a number that correlates with the size of the “Iranian shadow fleet”. Khan shared a specific example of the vessel Aquamarine, which appeared to jump across the Gulf at a speed of 102 knots, a “classic sign of spoofing”. Furthermore, high-burst radio frequency signals from regional missile defence systems are causing widespread AIS jamming, affecting not just ships but all manner of internet-connected devices. Attacks and risks The physical toll of the conflict is already significant. Khan spoke of 26 confirmed attacks on merchant vessels in just two weeks, with most incidents occurring at the entry or exit of the Strait. Twelve crew members have been killed and three remain missing. “The situation is quite dire at sea right now,” Khan said. Beyond the human cost, there is a looming “ecological risk”. Many tankers in the Iranian Dark Fleet are well past their average 20-year lifespan, with some exceeding 30 years of age. Khan warned that if one of these vessels were to break up, the resulting spill would dwarf the Exxon Valdez disaster. From an insurance perspective, the market is adjusting to a total shift in the risk profile. Neil Roberts, head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd’s Market Association, noted that while insurance remains available to facilitate trade, “underwriters had to adjust for that conflict”. War risk insurance premiums have increased by nearly 1,000% for some vessels, jumping from 25 basis points to as much as 3% of the vessel’s assessed value. Roberts said that the Joint War Committee has expanded “listed areas” to include previously exempted regions and US bases that are now seen as potential targets. He added that the current lack of movement is not due to a lack of insurance, but rather the judgment of Masters that “the position is unsafe for their crews and their vessels”. The legal and contractual implications are equally complex. Michael Ritter, a partner at HFW, noted that while the situation meets the definition of “warlike operations”, there is no simple alternative route for vessels bound for the Arabian Gulf. Unlike the Red Sea crisis,