Middle East conflict – gas market implications: a continuing assessment in Oil & Companies News 10/03/2026 The ceasing of LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in approximately 20% of global LNG supply coming from Qatar’s 77 mpta Ras Laffan and UAE’s 5.8 mtpa Das Island plants being shut-in, and the market is still absorbing the shock. Qatar’s Ras Laffan this week shutdown operations and is issuing force majeure notices to buyers. Gas prices in Europe and Asia have surged roughly 65% since the disruption began, reaching their highest levels since March 2023. This is not a sentiment-driven spike – it reflects a genuine physical supply shortfall that will take weeks to resolve. Our near-real-time flow and vessel-tracking data confirm the scale and persistence of the shortfall. What has been taken offline? Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, has declared force majeure following drone attacks on its facilities. UAE’s Das Island is being closely monitored and faces the risk of being shutdown due to tank topping. Exports through the Strait of Hormuz have ceased entirely. The combined effect is the removal of approximately 5.8 million tonnes of Middle Eastern LNG supply in March alone – equivalent to roughly 14% of the original global monthly forecast. Current vessel situation • Approximately 25 ballast vessels have formed a buildup southeast of the Gulf of Oman, waiting to access the region • A smaller number of laden vessels from Qatar and the UAE remain positioned west of the strait, unable to reach end-user destinations in Asia. Can global supply fill the gap? The instinctive market question – can other LNG exporters ramp up to cover the loss? – has a clear answer: not at this scale, and not quickly. • The United States and Australia already operate at high utilisation rates • Nigeria, Algeria, and Trinidad face feed gas availability constraints, not liquefaction capacity limits • Realistic supplementary supply from all alternative sources totals under 2 million tonnes, against a 5.8 million tonne monthly shortfall Atlantic Basin cargoes are already diverting toward Asia, compressing volumes available to Europe and pushing Asian spot prices sharply higher. Regional impact assessment South Asia: the market’s shock absorber South Asian buyers bear the greatest immediate risk and will function as the primary demand adjustment mechanism for the global market. • Pakistan sources approximately 99% of LNG imports from Qatar • Bangladesh sources around 70% from Qatar • India sources approximately 50% from the Middle East Both Pakistan and Bangladesh operate under strict affordability constraints with limited domestic storage – estimated at one to two weeks of cover. The result is demand destruction, not aggressive spot purchasing. Expected outcomes include power sector load shedding in Pakistan, industrial gas supply cuts in Bangladesh, and selective demand reductions of 5-10% in India’s industrial sector. At a sustained $15/MMBtu price environment, South Asian demand destruction of approximately 4 million tonnes is anticipated. Southeast Asia: procurement delays, not immediate cuts Southeast Asian buyers – including Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam – sit between the immediate vulnerability of South Asia and the structural resilience of Northeast Asia. Both Singapore and Thailand benefit from flexible power systems that can switch between gas, coal, and oil. The expected response is procurement delay rather than physica