There is no doubt that whoever is the next president of the US trade tussles will form a key plank of government. Whether it is Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, the American electorate is demanding a greater restoring of trade, something that is already having significant repercussions for shipping, felt most keenly in the container business. With Joe Biden exiting the 2024 US presidential race, betting data shows that vice president Harris is gaining momentum. But despite improving odds, Donald Trump remains in the lead. In the event that Trump returns to the White House, financial markets expect higher inflation, steeper trade tariffs, looser fiscal policy, weaker regulations, and heightened geopolitical uncertainties – something of a mixed bag for shipping fortunes. Weaker dollar The prospect of a depreciating dollar, something Trump is keen to see, could act as significant benefit to the shipping industry, maintains Greek broker Intermodal. Manipulating currency values to correct trade imbalances has been a tactic used by previous Republican presidents in the 1980s and 1970s. In the shipping industry, a depreciating dollar offers clear benefits, Intermodal reckons, primarily through reduced operational costs. Fuel—a major expense for shipping companies—generally becomes cheaper when the dollar weakens, easing financial pressures for firms operating with stronger currencies. This cost reduction extends to debt servicing, as firms with US dollar-denominated loans benefit from stronger revenue currencies. On the flip side, there are considerable disadvantages, particularly affecting revenue and asset valuation. Trump’s return poses economic problems should he pursue similar policies to his 2017-20 term. The New York Times suggests that a repeat of that playbook, such as tariffs on trading partners and tax cuts at home, will be riskier this time around. When he became president in 2017 prices had risen 5% over the previous four years. In Biden’s term to date they are up 20% with less than six months to go. Tax cuts, financed with borrowed money, and higher import tariffs will boost prices and lift inflation causing interest rates to go up, not come down. “Growth stimulus is not needed, neither is an increase in America’s huge debt pile,” argues broker Hartland Shipping in a recent market commentary. One Trump promise is mass deportations that would cause labour shortages and push up prices, Hartland suggests. Regardless, he will “intimidate” the Fed into lowering interest rates, but his announced policies will likely see the Fed do the exact opposite, Hartland predicts. “Avoid raising the national debt and steer clear of escalating bilateral trade wars,” Hartland advises. Geopolitics Geopolitics has played a key role in shaping the fundamentals of the shipping industry in recent years with Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas and Houthi attacks affecting various segments, mostly positively. With a Trump win, analysts at Jefferies suggest an end to the Russia-Ukraine war would have the biggest impact on tankers. Tankers have benefited from high spot rates, especially mid-size crude and product carriers, with longer voyage distances effectively removing 5% of ship capacity. This 5%, says Jefferies, is the difference between the current up-cycle environment and that of mid-cycle. Jefferies is also cautious on the LNG shipping sector in the event of a peace deal in eastern Europe, primarily due to moderated LNG prices and a near-term mismatch of new