Trade stands at a crossroads in International Shipping News 13/06/2026 T he OECD has laid out two starkly different economic futures for global trade in its latest Economic Outlook. The report’s scenario analysis makes clear that the trajectory of Middle East-related disruptions to energy flows will determine not only growth, but the structure and resilience of global trade itself. At the centre of the OECD’s outlook lies a divergence. On one side is a “time-limited disruption scenario” in which supply chains gradually normalise. On the other is a “prolonged disruption scenario” that implies persistent supply shocks, structural damage to trade networks and a reordering of global commerce. Even in the more optimistic case, global trade is expected to lose momentum. The OECD projects that “global trade growth is projected to moderate from 5.0% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, and slow further to 2.9% in 2027”. This slowdown reflects both direct and indirect effects of energy disruption. Maritime chokepoints and elevated freight costs have already begun to weigh on flows, particularly between Asia, Europe and the Middle East. The report notes that trade weakness will be driven by “a sharp decline in trade with the Gulf economies and increasing energy and transport costs”. These factors illustrate how input shocks, rather than demand contraction alone, are now driving trade outcomes. However, offsets remain. Lower tariff rates in the US and continued demand for AI-related goods are expected to “help to sustain overall global growth”. This highlights a bifurcation within trade itself: while commodity-linked and energy-intensive flows weaken, technology-driven trade continues to provide momentum. Scenario divergence The OECD’s two scenarios hinge on the duration of supply disruptions emanating from the Gulf. In the baseline case, energy production recovers from mid-2026, allowing shipping routes and production networks to gradually stabilise. Under this pathway, shortages remain