COMMODITY TRACKER: 6 charts to watch this week in Commodity News 12/03/2026 The war in the Middle East disrupts commodity markets as Russian crude differentials narrow after US sanctions relief. Middle Eastern aluminum shipments face significant delays amid shipping route changes, while European gas prices increase, impacting ammonia production costs. Asian used cooking oil prices rise following the Lunar New Year holiday. 1. Russian crude differentials narrow after US sanctions waiver What’s happening? The discount on Russian Urals crude has narrowed following a US Treasury Department 30-day waiver allowing sanctioned Russian oil already loaded onto vessels to be sold to India. Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Urals DAP West Coast India at a $9.4/b discount to Forward Dated Brent on March 9, compared to $12.5/b on Feb. 27. Buyers are seeking Russian barrels as a potential replacement for Middle Eastern crude amid supply concerns from regional infrastructure attacks and Strait of Hormuz restrictions. Prior to the US waiver announcement, discounts on Russian crude had widened, after sanctions on its largest producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as an EU ban on imports of refined products made from Russian oil, came into effect. What’s next? US officials may issue additional sanctions relief to minimize price impacts from Middle East conflicts. Russian crude exports could potentially increase, though supplies fell 4% month over month to 3.4 million b/d in February. Notably, supplies to India dropped significantly, averaging 503,000 b/d in February, a 43% month over month decline, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea(opens in a new tab) data. 2. Middle East conflict disrupts aluminum supply What’s happening? Middle East aluminum exports have been stifled by the region’s conflict. The region, accounting for 9% of global primary aluminum supply, is a crucial aluminum supplier due to the Persian Gulf’s access to low-cost natural gas. On March 6, the Platts-assessed US Midwest Premium for primary aluminum reached an all-time high of 110.95 c/lb, plus LME cash, reflecting the supply chain disruption. What’s next? North American aluminum markets face potential severe supply constraints, with the UAE and Bahrain supplying 23% of US aluminum imports in 2025, up from 16% in 2024. The potential inactivity of Qatalum and Alba smelters could temporarily remove over 2.2 million metric tons of annual aluminum capacity. Asian countries like Japan and South Korea are expected to seek alternative supply sources, potentially driving regional premiums higher. 3. European ammonia producers face gas price increase What’s happening? The Strait of Hormuz disruption increased European natural gas prices, raising ammonia production costs. Platts-assessed delivered ammonia into Northwest Europe at $750/mt on March 5, a three-year high. While current cash costs still support European production, a prolonged disruption could force producers to either operate at high costs or shut down and rely more on imports, market sources have said. What’s next? With gas supply from the Middle East cut off, continued disruptions risk pushing up ammonia production costs. European consumers must weigh producing with expensive gas against importing, as supply west of Suez was already tight due to earlier plant outages. New US Gulf Coast capacity, including Gulf Coast Ammonia and Woodside Beaumont facilities, coming online soon could help ease import price pressures,