Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs could lead to surge in US import demand – analyst in World Economy News 23/02/2026 The US Supreme Court struck down on Friday the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which could lead to a surge in demand for imports, a shipping analyst said. Lars Jensen, president of consultant Vespucci Maritime, said it is still too early to know how the ruling and reversal of reciprocal tariffs under IEEPA will play out in practical terms, but expects it will have a substantial impact on US importers. “An overview will likely emerge in the coming days, but it appears some 60% of the tariffs currently in place are impacted and needs to be retroactively removed,” Jensen said. “Importers will be looking for reimbursements in excess of $150 billion.” Jensen said that from a container shipping perspective, the interesting part is that this could potentially lead to a sudden demand surge in the next weeks and months as importers might try to move as much product as possible before new tariffs, under different rules, are potentially put into place. Jensen said he will be watching the transpacific trade lane specifically in the coming weeks as a “canary in the coal mine” as a sudden demand shift would manifest itself in surging spot rates. “The main challenge for US importers willing to suddenly move fast is that Lunar New Year holidays prevent an imminent ramp-up in production in China,” Jensen said. For importers, Jensen said they now need to start a legal process to get their IEEPA tariffs refunded, which is a task in itself which should not be underestimated. REACTION FROM DOMESTIC RETAILERS The National Retail Federation (NRF) said the court’s ruling “provides much-needed certainty for US businesses and manufacturers, enabling global supply chains to operate without ambiguity”. “Clear and consistent trade policy is essential for economic growth, creating jobs and opportunities for American families,” David French, NRF executive vice president of government relations said. “We urge the lower court to ensure a seamless process to refund the tariffs to US importers. The refunds will serve as an economic boost and allow companies to reinvest in their operations, their employees and their customers.” THE NEXT STEPS FOR SHIPPERS Robert Khachatryan, founder and CEO of licensed customs broker Freight Right Logistics, said the immediate priority is figuring out how to file entries today. “We have paused all entries that are not immediately due (we typically file 4-6 days prior to arrival) and are filing several entries without the tariffs to see if they get rejected,” Khachatryan said. “Customs systems do not immediately adapt to the changes, so while the court effectively ordered IEEPA tariffs stopped immediately some importers are still paying them until the changes go through the ACE system.” The ACE system is used by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) for the reporting of imports and exports. Khachatryan said that as far as the refunds go, “it seems they will be done through existing administrative processes including Post-Summary Corrections, Amendments, and Protests”. “It is not clear what the scrutiny level will be for these corrections yet,” Khachatryan said. IMPACT ON TRUCKING Craig Fuller, founder/CEO of logistics company FreightWaves, said in a social media post that he expects the ruling to lead to increased activity among shippers. “All hell