LNG Shock: From Supply Disruption to System Strain in International Shipping News 25/03/2026 Damaged Qatari infrastructure and a near-collapse in Hormuz transit are shifting the LNG market from a supply shock to a flow-constrained crisis. The global LNG market remains under significant stress following Iranian attacks on Qatari energy infrastructure, which have removed approximately 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, equivalent to roughly 3% of global LNG supply. The disruption is concentrated in the LNG liquefaction trains at Ras Laffan, where strikes damaged processing units and associated infrastructure, resulting in multiple trains being taken offline. Repair timelines are currently estimated at three to five years for full capacity restoration. In an official statement, QatarEnergy confirmed that affected trains were shut down following the incident and that LNG exports are continuing at reduced capacity from unaffected facilities. The company also stated that technical assessments are ongoing and that work has begun to address the damage. European gas prices reacted sharply following the disruption, with benchmark TTF contracts moving higher. Prices remain elevated, and forward curves indicate continued tightness through 2027. At the geopolitical level, tensions remain high. Statements by Donald Trump included a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and threats targeting Iranian energy infrastructure. This ultimatum was subsequently delayed, and no military action has been announced. As of today, the status of U.S.–Iran contacts remains unclear. U.S. officials have indicated that discussions have taken place through intermediaries, while Iranian authorities have publicly denied that any direct negotiations are underway. No agreement has been announced. The LNG market remains impacted by both the physical loss of supply and the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Spotlight Vessel Congestion and Disruption Flows The first clear indication that the disruption extends beyond production is visible in vessel activity across the Arabian Gulf. LNG carriers are currently in a waiting status, particularly around Ras Laffan, indicating a buildup of idle tonnage. Vessel Positioning: Supply Is Building but Not Moving Monthly vessel counts in the Strait of Hormuz show a clear break from seasonal patterns, with a 3-day moving average in March reaching approximately 11 vessels versus a typical 3–4. This reflects vessels accumulating within the corridor rather than clearing it, indicating a disruption to normal transit flows. Transit Breakdown: Hormuz Crossings Collapse Waypoint data clearly indicates a more serious disruption, showing a sharp decline in LNG vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz in both directions. Flows have fallen to nearly zero in a short time, marking a significant break from past patterns of steady two-way movement. At the same time, broader shipping activity suggests that transit through the Strait has not ceased entirely but has become selective and non-transparent. Recent reports indicate that passage is being granted on a limited basis, in some cases involving negotiated access or elevated transit costs, particularly for tankers and other commercial vessels. This divergence highlights a two-tier system in which some vessel segments may still transit under specific conditions, while LNG flows remain effectively constrained due to their structural inflexibility and limited fleet availability. As a