Shipping Interrupted: Tracking the Impact of Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz in International Shipping News 01/05/2026 While the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain amid stalled peace talks and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the dry bulk segment is still largely unscathed. Spot freight rates remain solid across all dry bulk segments, and the ongoing ceasefire has breathed new life into the bulker market. The coal trades in particular may benefit from the closure of the strait. Scarcity and elevated prices in oil and gas markets will likely lead to coal switching, with countries seeking to increase coal consumption to reduce pressure on energy prices. This effect will likely be most prominent for as long as the strait is closed. That said, the past two months have highlighted the risks of a world reliant on the Strait of Hormuz for its energy supplies. The coal switching trend could therefore prove more enduring, providing lasting support to dry bulk markets. There is, however, one significant downside to the closure of the strait for dry bulk markets. A prolonged period of a closed strait and elevated energy prices could be detrimental to economic activity and potentially tip the global economy into a recession. Since dry bulk demand is closely tied to economic growth, a recession would be unambiguously negative for dry bulk freight markets. Fertilizer shortages could reduce upcoming grain harvests, which would in turn lead to a decline in grain trade and weigh on dry bulk freight rates. Whether the positives outweigh the negatives depends entirely on the duration of the situation — the longer the closure persists, the more severe the negative effects become. Currently, however, the FFA market appears convinced that the positives have the upper hand. Since the ceasefire began and hopes of economic normalization emerged, dry bulk FFA markets have remained broadly positive. The market is expecting Capesize rates above 30,000 USD/day for the remainder of the year, with small and medium sized segments expected to trade largely in line with current spot rates. This outlook implies a near-term resolution to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and a world economy that avoids recession. Should this scenario fail to materialize, however, the reality could prove significantly worse than what the current FFA curve suggests. Speed as a Signal: What Tanker Behaviour Tells Us About the Hormuz Disruption Since the US-Israeli conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz, VesselsValue speed data is showing a striking divergence between how VLCCs and Suezmaxes are responding — and the contrast tells two very different stories. Average Suezmax ballast speeds have reached the highest level in VesselsValue data going back to 2012, surpassing even the COVID-era floating storage boom. Laden speeds, however, remain below the peaks of late 2023/early 2024 during the Cape of Good Hope diversions. The fleet isn’t racing to deliver existing cargoes — it’s relocating at record pace toward alternative load zones, and with West Africa, the Americas and the Black Sea all accessible, it has somewhere to go. VLCC laden speeds have spiked to their highest point since 2016, exceeding both the post-COVID and Cape diversion peaks — vessels that loaded before Hormuz closed are racing to deliver into a backwardated market. Ballast speeds have also risen this year, though unlike Suezmaxes they haven’t reached record highs. VesselsValue vessel tracking