As Americans head out to vote today, Splash identifies the potential effects on the main shipping segments. “The link between elections, and how they could harm or assist the global economy, depending on who is the victor, are important, and impact shipping, therefore it behooves us to follow the many elections that are taking place in the world during 2024, the most important of which is the USA Presidential elections,” states a markets roundup contained within the Q3 results from Thai-listed dry bulk owner, Precious Shipping, today. “Many populist leaders are promoting deglobalization, near-shoring, friend-shoring, and other market-distorting policies. If such leaders get elected, they could have a significant negative impact on shipping demand while increasing inflation through their deglobalization policies.” Graham Porter, chairman of Tiger Group Investments, and one of the co-founders of Seaspan, told delegates attending last month’s Maritime CEO Forum held at the Monaco Yacht Club: “The world is breaking apart. I think that’s what’s causing all this chaos. We’re on a very different trend. It’s no longer collaboration, it’s independent pull. Pull your resources and hold them yourself.” Discussing today’s “fragmented” world, Porter said: “I think we’re going to get more and more regulation, more and more tariffs, more and more anti-trade positions and probably more and more national fleets carrying their own cargo, protected by their own navies.” Containers The liner business is usually considered to be the most exposed out of all the major shipping markets to geopolitical disruption, relying as it does on consumer spending for much of its cargo demand. Both US presidential candidates – Donald Trump and Kamala Harris – are in favour of import tariffs and budget deficits. Trump, in particular, has made it very clear that he intends to drastically increase tariffs. “For container shipping, this would mean a short-term demand boost into the US, as some importers would try to get goods in prior to any new tariffs. In the medium- to longer-term it would likely shift some of the trade patterns, as importers find ways to adjust their sourcing patterns, to minimise any tariff impact,” analysts at Sea-Intelligence wrote on Sunday, arguing that this was not necessarily bad news for the shipping lines . “It merely implies the need to perhaps adjust the shipping networks to accommodate different trade flows,” Sea-Intelligence suggested. “Cargoes will move in different ways but ultimately they will end up in the hands of the end consumer,” said Jeremy Nixon, CEO of Japanese liner giant Ocean Network Express (ONE), speaking at September’s Marine Money event in Singapore. Nixon said that while this might mean less business on the China-US tradelane, other routes such as China-Mexico were picking up the slack. “Things move around,” Nixon said. “We are the servants of global trade, we have to pick up those trends very quickly and adapt very quickly.” Gas Turning to the gas markets, broker SSY noted in a recent report: “Whoever wins the battle later in the year will have a profound impact on LNG, whether it be banning future export projects or implementing trade tariffs, it is all very relevant. With Kamala Harris reversing her rhetoric on US fracking, it just goes to show that winning votes is what counts, not necessarily staying true to one’s beliefs or manifesto.” China is a major importer of US LPG and LNG and any threat to these flows would lik