The Commodities Feed: Oil drops as hopes for Persian Gulf resolution grow in Oil & Companies News 21/05/2026 Energy- – Hopes build once again in energy markets The oil market remains overly sensitive to Iran-related headlines, with participants continuing to pin considerable hope on reports that talks between the US and Iran are progressing. We’ve been in this situation multiple times before, which ultimately led to disappointment. Yet the market is still reactive, likely reflecting the significance of ongoing supply disruptions. The latest report suggests that the US is in the “final stages” with Iran, raising hopes for an end to the war and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, ICE Brent settled more than 5.6% lower yesterday. The market appears to be giving more weight to these reports, with unusually heavy put option activity in Brent earlier this week, as Bloomberg identified. Meanwhile, there appear to be additional crude oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Ship tracking data showed at least two VLCCs navigated the strait on Wednesday, and possibly a third. This would equate to 6 million barrels. More recently, we’ve seen more oil making its way out of the Persian Gulf, but clearly, flows remain well below normal levels. Our base case sees Brent averaging $104/bbl this quarter. Then, we see oil trading into the $90s in the second half of the year, assuming that Strait of Hormuz oil flows amount to around 4m b/d by the end of May. We will need to see this trend of tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz continue for our base case to hold. We may see more oil tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz. But shipowners will be reluctant to return until the current hostilities in the region are resolved. The EIA’s weekly inventory report yesterday showed that total US crude oil inventories (including SPR) fell by a record 17.78m barrels last week. This highlights tightening in the US market on the back of stronger oil exports, amid ongoin