Too soon to sell the rally in oil prices or buy the dip in stocks: BCA in Stock News 04/03/2026 Investors should resist the urge to fade the surge in or step back into equities, BCA Research says, warning that the geopolitical shock tied to the Iran conflict is still unfolding and likely to carry deeper economic consequences. “It is too soon to sell the rip in oil or buy the dip in stocks,” said Matt Gertken, BCA’s chief geopolitical strategist. “Stick with risk-off trades for now.” Gertken argues that markets may be underestimating the scale of the conflict. BCA’s analysis suggests the U.S. and Iran are now “too deeply involved in conflict to avoid significant negative economic ramifications.” The investment research firm assigns a 50%–87% weighted probability of a major oil supply shock following U.S. strikes on core regime elements and threats toward Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). “Indeed, regionwide war erupted. The Strait of Hormuz is largely closed to traffic, implying what should be the largest energy shock in modern history,” Gertken wrote, although the duration and extent of damage remain uncertain. While Iran’s response has so far been only “fairly ineffective,” Gertken says, he stresses the country retains asymmetric capabilities and strong incentives to raise the economic cost of the war. “Hence we would bet that the war’s full impact on global energy supply and economy remains unrealized and that global financial markets are underrating events so far,” the strategist said. The main upside risk to the bearish view would be a rapid political reversal. Markets may be assuming President Donald Trump could halt the campaign and negotiate, but Gertken warns it may already be too late for such a clean exit given Washington’s stated objective of crippling the regime. Energy remains the key transmission channel. OPEC accounts for about 31% of global oil production, and roughly one-fifth of global supply is now blocked in Hormuz, according to BCA. Europe and China would be particularly vulnerable if prices stay elevated, given their oil import exposure. For positioning, Gertken says BCA’s recent trades have emphasized Iran risk, including overweight Treasuries, overweight U.S. equities relative to Europe and China, and a tilt toward defensive sectors. The firm plans to keep its long oil trade in place until it is confident Iran is no longer able to mount significant attacks on regional infrastructure and shipping. A shift back into international equities could come later if a major oil shock is avoided, but for now, BCA says it will maintain a defensive stance. Source: Investing.com 2026-03-04 hellenicshippingnews... window.___gcfg = {lang: 'en-US'}; (function(w, d, s) { function go(){ var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], load = function(url, id) { if (d.getElementById(id)) {return;} js = d.createElement(s); js.src = url; js.id = id; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }; load('//connect.facebook.net/en/all.js#xfbml=1', 'fbjssdk'); load('https://apis.google.com/js/plusone.js', 'gplus1js'); load('//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js', 'tweetjs'); } if (w.addEventListener) { w.addEventListener("load", go, false); } else if (w.attachEvent) { w.attachEvent("onload",go); } }(window, document, 'script')); tweet Share