Image for representation purposes only Global oil supply is now expected to fall below global demand this year, after major disruptions in the Middle East linked to the Iran conflict and restricted movement through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This is a reversal of its earlier view, which had expected a surplus. The Paris-based IEA said damage to oil infrastructure in Iran and nearby Gulf countries, along with restrictions on tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz, has created a serious supply disruption in global oil markets. The agency estimates that more than 14 million barrels per day of oil production is currently shut in. It also said total supply losses from Gulf producers have now crossed 1 billion barrels. Because of this, global oil inventories are being used up at a fast pace as importing countries receive less supply from the Middle East. The IEA said inventories fell by 246-250 million barrels during March and April alone. The agency now expects global oil supply to fall short of demand by 1.78 million barrels per day in 2026. This is a major change from last month, when it had forecast a surplus of 410,000 barrels per day, and an even earlier projection in December of a surplus close to 4 million barrels per day. The IEA said the market is expected to stay undersupplied at least through the third quarter of 2026, even if the conflict eases by early June. It warned that the second quarter alone could see a deficit of up to 6 million barrels per day. Its main assumption is that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will slowly restart from June, but recovery will not be immediate. Even after shipping resumes, the agency said it will take time for exports to return to normal because of damaged infrastructure, delays in logistics, and possible mine clearance in the waterway. It added that after clearance, oil exports could still take two to three months to fully normalise, as tankers are repositioned,