The arrest and detention of Venezuela’s former leader Nicolás Maduro has triggered a fresh bout of volatility across tanker markets, with president Donald Trump claiming the US will take control of up to 50m barrels of sanctioned Venezuelan crude in a move that could redraw Atlantic Basin flows. Posting late Tuesday, Trump said Venezuela’s interim authorities had agreed to hand over between 30m and 50m barrels of “high-quality, sanctioned oil” to the United States, with proceeds overseen directly by the White House. Energy secretary Chris Wright has been instructed to move immediately, with the crude expected to be transferred via floating storage and discharged at US ports. Aframax tonne-miles on the Venezuela-US Gulf run could quadruple versus last year’s averages The announcement has sharpened focus on shipping logistics just as Chevron ramps up its presence in Venezuelan waters. A small fleet of tankers chartered by the US major is now heading to the country, with at least 11 vessels scheduled to call at Jose and Bajo Grande this month, according to preliminary data cited by Bloomberg. Chevron, operating under a US Treasury licence, is currently the only western company permitted to produce and export Venezuelan crude and accounts for roughly a quarter of national output, supplying refineries on the US Gulf and east coast. At the same time, geopolitical risk around sanctioned shipping has intensified. Russia has reportedly deployed naval assets to escort an oil tanker in the North Atlantic that is being tracked by US forces. The vessel, currently empty but historically involved in transporting Venezuelan crude, was believed to be sailing between Scotland and Iceland after changing name and flag following a failed US Coast Guard boarding attempt in the Caribbean last month. US officials have indicated a preference to seize sanctioned vessels, raising the spectre of a maritime stand-off involving US and Russian interests. Against this backdrop, brokers are already mapping out the tanker market implications. According to Braemar, a full redirection of Venezuelan exports – around 800,000 barrels per day on a 2025 average – to US Gulf refineries would be transformative for regional tonne-miles. Heavy sour Venezuelan crude is highly prized by US Gulf refiners seeking to optimise yields, and aframax tonne-miles on the Venezuela-US Gulf run could quadruple versus last year’s averages. Braemar estimates this would equate to roughly 26 additional aframax voyages per month, on top of the nine Venezuelan-loading voyages already associated with Chevron. Excluding lightering, around 43 aframax voyages would terminate in the US Gulf each month. Higher Venezuelan imports would likely displace pipeline barrels from Canada, with those volumes instead loading in the US Gulf for longer-haul voyages to India, China and Europe, providing further support to aframax and potentially suezmax demand. The knock-on effects would be felt most sharply in Asia. Until recently, the bulk of discounted, sanctioned Venezuelan crude bound for China – around 330,000 barrels per day in the second half of 2025 – was absorbed by independent teapot refiners in Shandong, with a further 191,000 barrels per day going to state-owned refiners elsewhere. Braemar notes that teapots face little immediate pressure to replace lost Venezuelan supply, given the estimated 70m barrels of Iranian, Russian and Venezuelan shadow crude sitting in floating storage, much of it already in East