IEA: Global oil stocks deplete at record pace as supply losses mount in Oil & Companies News 14/05/2026 World oil demand is forecast to contract by 420 kb/d y-o-y in 2026, to 104 mb/d, 1.3 mb/d less than our pre-war forecast. The biggest decline is in 2Q26, down by 2.45 mb/d, of which the OECD accounts for 930 kb/d and the non-OECD for 1.5 mb/d. The petrochemical and aviation sectors are currently most affected, but higher prices, a weaker economic environment and demand-saving measures will increasingly impact fuel use. Global oil supply declined by a further 1.8 mb/d in April to 95.1 mb/d, taking total losses since February to 12.8 mb/d. Output from Gulf countries affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels. Higher production and exports from the Atlantic Basin provide some relief. Assuming flows through the Strait gradually resume from June, global oil supply is projected to decline by 3.9 mb/d on average in 2026, to 102.2 mb/d. Refinery crude throughputs are forecast to plunge by 4.5 mb/d in 2Q26 to 78.7 mb/d, and by 1.6 mb/d to 82.3 mb/d for 2026 as a whole, as operators contend with infrastructure damage, export restrictions and lower feedstock availability. Refining margins remain at historically high levels, supported by record middle distillate cracks. Refiners are adapting to the crisis, with new trade flows emerging to compensate for lost Gulf product exports. Global observed oil inventories drew by 129 mb in March and by a further 117 mb in April, according to preliminary data. Continued disruptions to seaborne trade through the Strait of Hormuz saw on-land stocks drop by 170 mb (-5.7 mb/d) in April, while oil on water rebounded by 53 mb. OECD countries’ on-land stocks plummeted by 146 mb (-4.9 mb/d) while visible non-OECD stocks fell by 24 mb. North Sea Dated traded in an unparalleled wide range of almost $50/bbl in April, with the disruption to Middle East flows triggering a surge in prices of about $16.50/bbl m-o-m to an average of $120.36/bbl. Time spreads oscillated in line with flat prices, with prompt time spreads in WTI and Brent futures ending the month at around $5/bbl. Dated’s premium to ICE Brent futures weakened from a record $35/bbl in mid-April to $3/bbl in early May. Plugging the gap More than ten weeks after the war in the Middle East began, mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace. Benchmark oil prices have posted wild swings in response to conflicting signals on whether the United States and Iran will soon reach a deal to end the conflict, with North Sea Dated plunging from a high of $144/bbl to below $100/bbl before rebounding again. At the time of writing, the two countries remained at loggerheads over an accord to reopen the Strait and end the war, with North Sea Dated around $110/bbl. With Hormuz tanker traffic still restricted, cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels with more than 14 mb/d of oil now shut in, an unprecedented supply shock. The current supply-demand gap is significantly smaller, however, as the market was already in surplus heading into the crisis while producers and consumers alike are responding to market signals. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have successfully redirected some exports to terminals loading outside of the Strait. At the same time, stocks from commercial and government strategic storage sites in consuming countries are