Import loss, stock build: How China absorbs the Hormuz shock in Freight News 13/05/2026 As Hormuz-linked disruptions began to feed through in April—reflecting the typical four-week lag in Middle Eastern flows—seaborne crude imports fell sharply to around 8.4mbd, the lowest level since September 2022. This compares with an average of 11.1mbd in the first quarter and roughly 10.6mbd across 2025. And yet, instead of drawing down inventories, China kept building them. Aboveground crude stocks extended to a record 1.24 billion barrels, with builds still running at around 580kbd in April. Combined with the near 52mb accumulated since end-February, the signal is clear: refiners have adjusted faster—and more aggressively—than the supply shock itself. This is not a demand story. It is a supply management story. Runs, not imports, are doing the heavy lifting As highlighted in our earlier work [read more here], the adjustment began early. Refiners, particularly those heavily reliant on seaborne crude and with relatively thinner stock buffers, responded by cutting runs as early as early March, in some cases pulling forward seasonal maintenance. At the same time, the system lost one of its key balancing mechanisms. Early in the year, strong refinery runs had allowed product inventories to build ahead of the Chinese New Year travel season. When demand softened after the holiday period, exports—particularly for transportation fuels—would help clear the surplus. That loop was broken on March 12th – just one day before the end of CNY travel rush – when the state planner imposed curbs on seaborne transportation fuel exports. Exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau dropped to around 390kbd in March, down from roughly 600kbd a year earlier, before collapsing further to just 120kbd in April—a 77% year-on-year decline. With exports constrained, product inventories began to accumulate, especially at state-owned refiners that kept up runs, which are now seeking approvals to release additional barrels. There may be a rebound in fuel exports in May, but it is unlikely to reflect stronger refinery runs. More likely, it is simply the system trying to clear excess stock. Refinery runs in China are likely to decline further into May, as seasonal maintenance peaks in Q2. This means that onshore crude stock builds are also expected to reverse soon, as refiners will start to draw on inventories to offset continued import shortfalls. This is where the policy signal becomes important. Despite strong export margins, China is unlikely to encourage refiners to ramp up runs or draw down crude inventories aggressively. The priority remains domestic supply security, not export optimisation. With Hormuz transit unlikely to normalise in the near term, this stance is unlikely to shift. Any recovery in exports will therefore be incremental and controlled, rather than structural. The real constraint is not volume—it’s quality At the same time, China is facing a structural shortfall of around 2.5mbd in non-Iranian Middle Eastern crude in April and May, relative to a 2025 baseline. In theory, long-haul barrels from the Atlantic Basin could help fill the gap. In practice, they are not. Flows from the Atlantic Basin are declining alongside refinery run cuts, and some Chinese majors have even resold May-loading cargoes to other Asian buyers. More importantly, these barrels—particularly from West Africa or Canada—sit at the lighter or heavier ends of the spectrum. They are not designed to rep