Sitting, waiting, wishing… for energy flows to resume in Oil & Companies News 18/05/2026 Falling Chinese imports and rising US exports offer relief to oil markets It has been another volatile month in energy markets, with oil prices being whipsawed by Iran-related headlines. Cold water has been thrown over optimism for an imminent peace deal, after President Trump rejected Iran’s counterproposal peace plan. And as a result, any hopes for a quick resumption in energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz have also faded, which has seen Brent trade convincingly back above $100/bbl. However, with the oil market facing a supply disruption of around 13m b/d, one may be surprised that we are not seeing much higher prices. There is an element of the market still clinging to some optimism that energy flows may start picking up. However, there are some fundamental factors that have also helped. Chinese oil imports have fallen significantly, while US oil exports hit record levels consistently in April, which has helped to take some of the upward pressure off the market. But these are temporary solutions. China will be relying on inventory as imports fall, while similarly the growth in US exports is fed by inventory rather than supply growth. Another element which has contained the market is that we have already started to see demand destruction in the oil market. Crude oil prices have not had to go as high as many would imagine to drive this decline in demand. This can be largely attributed to the relative strength seen in refined product prices (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel), reflected by the widening in refined product margins. The significant strength in refined product prices has meant that crude oil prices have not had to go as high to ensure demand destruction. While there is still plenty of uncertainty over how the situation plays out, we are assuming some recovery in oil flows in the remainder of the second quarter, allowing for nearer to normal flows in the third quar